Simulations Using a Drug-disease Modeling Framework and Phase 2 Data Predict Phase 3 Survival Outcome in First-line Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Simulations were performed for carboplatin/paclitaxel (C/P) plus motesanib or bevacizumab vs. C/P as first-line treatment for advanced non small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) using a published drug disease model. With 700 patients in each arm, simulated hazard ratios for motesanib (0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-1.1) and bevacizumab (0.89; 95% CI, 0.73-1.1) agreed with results from the respective phase III studies but did not discriminate between failed and successful studies. The current model may require further enhancement to improve its utility for predicting phase III outcomes.